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We don’t know how close we are to triggering an Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC breakdown - but now we know a lot more about what it would mean for extreme temperatures in Europe. Good @carbonbrief
.org piece on a new study by the Dutch colleagues! 🌊
carbonbrief.org/ocean-current-…

Ocean current ‘collapse’ could trigger ‘profound cooling’ in northern Europe – even with global warming - Carbon Brief

A “collapse” of key Atlantic ocean currents would cause winter temperatures to plunge across northern Europe, overriding the warming driven by human activity.
Cecilia Keating (Carbon Brief)
#amoc

teilten dies erneut

Als Antwort auf Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

Uncertainty in the face of serious danger is of course no reason to ignore it.
Passing that #AMOC tipping point by mid-century looks increasingly likely in light of recent studies.
And there’s also a more imminent, albeit a bit less detrimental risk:
fediscience.org/@rahmstorf/114…

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

2025-06-09 21:51:03

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One of the most immediate climate tipping point dangers is an abrupt cooling of the subpolar gyre, with major impacts on 🇪🇺 climate quite possible in the next two decades. 🌊
Great how Swinda Falkena et al. use advanced causal inference methods to tease out the mechanisms!

arxiv.org/html/2408.16541v2

Causal Mechanisms of Subpolar Gyre Variability in CMIP6 Models

arxiv.org

#amoc

ddd🇺🇦 hat dies geteilt.

Als Antwort auf Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

When lead author Van Westen talks about "a more unstable [AMOC] regime which corresponds to actual observations", he means studies like this. These measurements indicate a bistable #AMOC regime unlike in many models, i.e. closer to the tipping point.
So that their model requires quite a lot of freshwater input to get close to the tipping point is to counter this well-known bias found in many models.
In any case, this study is not about how close the tipping point is, but about what happens once the AMOC breaks down in a global warming world. It is about the temperature response to counter-acting forces: global warming and regional cooling.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co…
#amoc

ddd🇺🇦 hat dies geteilt.

Als Antwort auf Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

mastodon - Link zum Originalbeitrag

Vayl Larkin (they/them)

I'm a poet/playwright, so all I can do in the face of things like this is write about them. My first poem about AMOC was almost ten years ago, and it is surreal at how little coverage there still is, even with the uptick I've noticed in the past year or two. I've given a brief explainer before any reading of that piece, and it's still boggling people's minds when they hear about it.
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